COVID-19 Pandemic: Surpassing Islamic Republic Of Iran, India Now 10th – Out Of 188 Countries – Worst-Affected Globally!

by Dr. P. S. Sahni

The number of n-Coronavirus cases in India has raced past the cases in Islamic Republic of Iran. It may be recalled that Iran was the worst hit country in the middle-east; outside China it was the 2nd hardest affected. In the beginning of the pandemic it was criticized for its slow response to the spread of virus by the western media. For long years Iran has been facing sanctions imposed by the USA, thus blocking selling of crude oil; and accessing international financial markets. This pandemic saw Iran braving the sanctions and refusing “humanitarian aid” by the USA! The closed borders and travel bans created additional challenges for Iran. So Iran sought $5 billion loan from the IMF to fight the virus. USA opposed it.

Iran recorded its first two cases by February 20. By March 21, Iran had 19644 confirmed cases and 1433 deaths while USA had only 14631 cases and 210 deaths. Today, Iran’s number of cases stands at 135701 with 7417 deaths; daily growth rate is 2.1%. USA has 1686436 cases and 99300 deaths. India has now 138536 cases and 4024 deaths; daily growth rate is 5.9%. [Data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ accessed on 25.05.2020 at 8.05 a.m.]

Iran had its share of problem created by congregation of devout Muslims in the city of Mashhad, which is home to Iran’s most important Shiite shrine that attracts pilgrims from across the regions including India, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh and middle-east. In spite of calls by Iran’s civilian government to clerics to close such shrines to the public, the shrine in Mashhad remained open. The first two deaths from n-Coronavirus in Qom – a Centre for Islamic Studies and for pilgrims from abroad – were announced on 19 February.

Iranian authorities responded to this development in Mashhad with maturity and wisdom without apportioning blame on pilgrims from neighbouring countries including India. In fact 2000 Indians, mostly Shia pilgrims from Kargil had to be flown back to India at a later date.

About 2 dozen lawmakers in Iran were infected with the virus; Iran’s Deputy Health Minister succumbed to the virus. A council Member close to the Supreme Leader of Iran also died from the virus!

In India the Tablighi Jamaat congregation of a few thousand devout Muslims held in March in Nizamuddin, Delhi was projected as the raison d’être for pan-India spread of n-Coronavirus! Later it emerged that at the most a thousand odd cases may have been added because of Tablighi Jamaat congregation. A mountain was made out of a mole-hill. India now has 138536 cases, not even 1% were contributed by the Tablighi Jamaat.

The witch-hunting, targeting, criminalization of Tablighi members which followed has no parallel in post-independent India during management of any epidemic.  This author has worked in and documented five epidemics in India over fifty years from 1971 onwards. Why were the Tablighi members quarantined for up to 42 days at a stretch?

An apology to the Muslim community is in order. There should be an assurance that in future communal rhetoric would not be allowed to wreck scientific management of any epidemic. The Press Council of India should have taken suo motu action against the (practically) entire (with a few honorable exceptions) print media for failing to report the Tablighi event dispassionately and throwing to the winds journalistic ethics. Those ruling class politicians and senior bureaucrats (who addressed the media-conferences daily) should be facing an independent enquiry. The deathly silence of the top-most medical scientists during those days is astonishing; they could have guided a scientific and secular analysis. They chose to be silent.

President Trump has been blaming, in turn, China all along for producing the virus in a laboratory and releasing it to spread world-wide. Not even a shred of evidence is offered in support by the USA.

Pertinently, the Indian health authorities should have undertaken massive testing during the earlier months of management. They would have detected the asymptomatic cases (termed “super-spreaders”) which eventually led to the case-trajectory of infections zooming upwards. Callousness led to the preventable increase of cases in India. At this rate India is likely to surpass Turkey, Germany, and France in June 2020!

Dr. P. S. Sahni is an independent medico-legal researcher and member of ABVA. Email: aidsbhedbhavvirodhiandolan@gmail.com

First published: https://countercurrents.org/2020/05/india-surpasses-iran-in-covid-19-cases/

COVID-19 Pandemic – Surpassing China, India’s Case Trajectory Racing Towards That of Europe!

by

Dr. P. S. Sahni

India has crossed 80,000 cases with no peak in sight in the near future after fifty-two days of lockdown; phase IV of lockdown will become effective from 18 May, 2020 onwards. The daily increase of cases even as of today is 5 %; with no hope of reaching under 1% in the foreseeable future. It means that unlike China, Indian health authorities did not do aggressive and adequate testing; so asymptomatic cases could not be detected and the infection continued to spread. The ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) – approved testing kits were returned back to the Chinese firms; if these were indeed faulty has anyone from ICMR/Union Health Ministry/All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) been punished for the initial approval? Delay in adequate testing raised the number of cases in India; this could have been prevented. India could have just followed the Chinese template of management. Indian Government did not.

China reached its peak of 80,000 cases within 40 days of clampdown (22/23 January – 1 March, 2020). About 20,00,000 tests were conducted in these 40 days. In the next 81 days the daily increase of cases stayed under 1%, nay a fraction of 1%. China continued the lockdown for a total of 77 days. When it lifted the lockdown the daily increase of cases was 0.08%. Thus at a total of 81740 cases on 6 April, the increase was by 62 cases on 7 April!!

After reaching 40,000 cases China doubled to 80,000 in 20 days (Doubling rate 20). India reached 40,000 cases on May 3 and doubled to 80,000 cases in 12 days on May 15. Our daily increase is 5% on 15 May. It is 5 divided by 0.08 or 62.5 times the Chinese growth rate on reaching 80,000 case mark!

Cabinet Ministers in the Indian Government were openly asking foreign countries to shift their manufacturing bases from China to India; these Minsters joined the motivated campaign of isolating China presumably at the instance of USA.

China offered help by way of sending medical experts; the Indian Government did not care to accept. The Indian Government all along took solace from the fact that a dozen odd countries mainly in Europe as also the USA were doing worse; whereas comparison should have been between the four Asian countries – more so China, South Korea, India. The Indian Government failed to learn from both the Chinese and South Korean experiences of managing the COVID-19 Pandemic faster and much better with less morbidity and mortality.

Dr. P. S. Sahni is an independent medico-legal researcher and member of ABVA. Email: aidsbhedbhavvirodhiandolan@gmail.com

First published: https://countercurrents.org/2020/05/covid-19-pandemic-surpassing-china-indias-case-trajectory-racing-towards-that-of-europe

Universalize Hijab; Make It Gender Neutral; Save Humanity From Anti-Muslim Campaign, n-Coronavirus, Patriarchy

by Shobha Aggarwal — May 10, 2020

Late last year I started wearing a hijab to protest against the communal virus spread against Muslims by the Indian government by promulgating Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019. Now the entire world is facing a secular n-coronavirus which makes no distinction between various religions/ regions/ communities/ class. In India religion wise statistics of infected people is not available and that is exactly how it should be. However, there had been a continuous campaign by the Indian government as well as Delhi government to blame the initial increase in COVID-19 cases once the lockdown was imposed on Tablighi Jamaat. Thus attempting to communalize even a secular n-coronavirus!

Just like the communal virus, n-coronavirus is here to stay with us for quite some time. Long term ways and means to stop the spread of virus at the level of an individual are being devised. These need to become a part of our daily lives just like brushing teeth every day.

To achieve this there is a campaign going on by the Indian government against handshakes and to promote ‘Namaste’ as a greeting; as also to wear facemasks in public. Namaste though widely used now in many Asian countries is a Hindu greeting deriving its roots from Sanskrit and Vedas. Namaste understandably should be a preferred mode of greeting these days as social distancing can be maintained without being rude or disrespectful.

When it comes to facemasks however it will be easy for the Muslim community to adapt to it. Many countries in the past have banned full face-covering hijab worn by Muslim women. Ironically life has come a full circle in these countries as face-covering masks are being promoted all over the world to stop n-coronavirus infection. Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, U.S.A. has recommended cloth face-covering (e.g. bandana, scarf) to slow the spread of COVID-19.

The adversity humanity is facing could be an opportunity to get rid of the communal virus along with the n-coronavirus. Along with Namaste as a greeting, full face-covering hijab should be promoted as a protection against the virus for both men and women. It is time to universalize hijab and make it gender neutral. It could save the humanity from communal virus, n-coronavirus and who knows may be even patriarchy!

I wear a full face-covering hijab these days whenever I step out of the house.

Shobha Aggarwal is a member of PIL Watch Group and ABVA.

First published: https://countercurrents.org/2020/05/universalize-hijab-make-it-gender-neutral-save-humanity-from-anti-muslim-campaign-n-coronavirus-patriarchy 

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Marginal Increase In Average Doubling Rate During Lockdown-I Merit Holding Indian Economy To Ransom?

by Dr P S Sahni — May 9, 2020

In the 21 day run-up period up to the start of lockdown, the average rate at which the COVID-19 cases were doubling was calculated to be 4.64. We assessed data provided by Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India (as compiled on Wikipedia: COVID-19 pandemic in India – last accessed on 06.05.2020 at 4.29 p.m.). It details the number of cases, deaths on a daily basis with effect 30 January, 2020 onwards. It has four columns viz. date, graph, number of cases (with %); number of deaths (with %). We would deal firstly on the number of cases three week prior to the lockdown viz. 4 March, 2020 to 24 March, 2020.

Simple Methodology

On 4 March, 2020 the number of cases in India was 28. The doubling of these 28 cases took place between 10 March and 11 March i.e. when the number of cases was 50 and 60 respectively. We entered the figure of 6-7 days in Column ‘C’. We repeated this exercise through the 21 day period up to the day just before the start of lockdown viz. 24 march, 2020.

Calculating the exact number of days in which cases doubled (Column ‘D’)

Now 6 days after the number of cases was reported to be 28 the number had reached 50; and seven days after the number of cases was reported to be 28 the number reached 60. Thus 10 cases were reported in that one day period, Day 6-Day 7. And 6 cases would get reported in 0.6 days. Hence the figure of 56 would be reached in 6+0.6 day = 6.60 days. This was entered in Column ‘D’.

The results are tabulated below:

TABLE – I

Column ‘A’ Date	Column ‘B’ Number of cases	Column ‘C’ Number of days in which cases doubled	Column ‘D’ Exact number of days in which cases doubled
4 March	28	6-7	6.60
5 March	30	6	6.00
6 March	31	5-6	5.14
7 March	34	4-5	4.57
8 March	39	4-5	4.57
9 March	44	5-6	5.15
10 March	50	4-5	4.61
11 March	60	5-6	5.26
12 March	74	5-6	5.78
13 March	81	5-6	5.50
14 March	84	4-5	4.77
15 March	110	4-5	4.94
16 March	114	4-5	4.05
17 March	137	3-4	3.55
18 March	151	2-3	2.85
19 March	173	2-3	2.68
20 March	223	4-5	2.79
21 March	315	4-5	4.27
22 March	360	4-5	4.18
23 March	468	5-6	5.15
24 March	519	5-6	5.06

Total: 97.47

The average rate of doubling of cases for this 21 day period = Sum-total of figures in Column ‘D’ divided by the number of days i.e. 21. Thus 97.47/21 = 4.64.

We repeated the exercise for the three week period after the lockdown got started from 25 March to 14 April i.e. the end of first phase of lockdown.

TABLE – II

Column ‘A’ Date	Column ‘B’ Number of cases	Column ‘C’ Number of days in which cases doubled	Column ‘D’ Exact number of days in which cases doubled
25 March	606	4-5	4.82
26 March	694	4-5	4.93
27 March	834	4-5	4.61
28 March	918	4-5	4.01
29 March	1,024	3-4	3.91
30 March	1,251	3-4	3.90
31 March	1,397	3-4	3.47
1 April	1,834	4-5	4.12
2 April	2,069	3-4	3.79
3 April	2,547	4-5	4.62
4 April	3,072	5-6	5.31
5 April	3,577	5-6	5.51
6 April	4,281	6-7	6.12
7 April	4,789	6-7	6.15
8 April	5,274	6-7	5.81
9 April	5,865	5-6	5.82
10 April	6,761	6-7	6.70
11 April	7,529	7-8	7.20
12 April	8,447	7-8	7.50
13 April	9,352	7-8	7.78
14 April	10,815	8-9	9.94

Total: 116.02

The average rate of doubling of cases for this 21 day period post lockdown = Sum-total of figures in Column ‘D’ divided by the number of days i.e. 21. Thus 116.02/21 = 5.52.

Some pertinent observations:

Out of the 21 day period – before and after lockdown – there were 11 days when there was no difference in doubling rates e.g. (See Table I & Table II)

• On 1 day the doubling rate was 3-4 days for both pre and post lockdown period.

• On 6 days the doubling rate was 4-5 days for both pre and post lockdown period.

• On 3 days the doubling rate was 5-6 days for both pre and post lockdown period.

• On 1 day the doubling rate was 6-7 days for both pre and post lockdown period.

• The average of doubling rate three weeks prior to lockdown was 4.64; it increased marginally to 5.52 three weeks post lockdown. The fact that lockdown period has been extended as phase II and phase III is the best evidence that very little, if anything got achieved in phase I.

• Regarding the timing of start of lockdown on 25 March, 2020.

A cursory look at Table I, Column ‘D’ will reveal that doubling rate on 18th, 19th and 20th March was 2.85; 2.68; 2.79 respectively. For the uninitiated it may be mentioned that lower the doubling rate, faster the pace of the spread of virus. Prior to 18th March (See Table I, Column ‘D’) the doubling rate was 6.60 to 3.55 from 4 March to 17 March. Thus the doubling rate on 18 March should have got the guns rolling – to use the militarist jargon followed assiduously worldwide by doctors-bureaucrats-politicians alike. True, to get at the doubling rate of 18 March one had to wait till 21 March when the number of cases stood at 315. Thus 151 cases of 18 March doubled to 302 by 21 March. The clampdown should have been announced on 21 March at whatever time the reading of 315 got available. The medical scientists sitting in the war-room (presumably situated in the office of the Union Home Ministry) should have given the green signal for the lockdown. By 23 March the decision makers would have the figures of 2.68 and 2.79 as the doubling rates for 19 March and 20 March staring on their faces, No dissent was needed because for three consecutive days viz. 18 March, 19 March, 20 March the doubling rate was hovering around 2 plus but under 3. No government anywhere in the world would consciously wait for the doubling to reach the figure of 1, because this means cases would double everyday with respect to the previous day’s cases; it would be disastrous to wait for the doubling rate to become 1. The doubling rate of 2 plus signals time for clampdown particularly when for three consecutive days it is stagnant at 2 plus. Why was clampdown not ordered on 21 March and certainly not later than 23 March?

In such situations a delay of even one to two days means the virus is being given a free rein and to hide the real reason for increasing number of COVID-19 cases in India, the Tablighi Jamaat congregation got used as an alibi.

[Dr. P. S. Sahni is an independent medico-legal researcher and member of ABVA. With research inputs from Shobha Aggarwal. Email: aidsbhedbhavvirodhiandolan@gmail.com]

First published: https://countercurrents.org/2020/05/covid-19-pandemic-did-marginal-increase-in-average-doubling-rate-during-lockdown-i-merit-holding-indian-economy-to-ransom